Ghalibaf Rejects US 'Carrot-and-Stick' Policy as Russian Diesel Tankers Head to America

Tehran’s Defiance Amid Diplomatic Deadlock

On Thursday, October 29, 2026, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, delivered a sharp rebuke to Washington’s current diplomatic strategy. Speaking in Tehran, Ghalibaf asserted that the United States' long-standing "carrot-and-stick" approach—offering conditional incentives while maintaining the threat of sanctions—is no longer a viable tool against the Islamic Republic. He emphasized that Iran’s conditions for ending the current regional tensions and entering any form of negotiation have been clearly articulated and will not be altered by external pressure. This rhetoric comes at a time when the Iranian public is closely watching for any signs of a diplomatic thaw that might alleviate the chronic economic pressure on the domestic market. For the average Iranian reader, these statements serve as a signal of continued geopolitical friction, which directly translates into market caution. The USD/IRR exchange rate reflected this sentiment, moving slightly from 270,700 to 271,200, a marginal increase of 0.2% over the last 24 hours. While the currency has avoided a major spike today, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations keeps the floor for the Toman high. Traders in the Ferdowsi market remain hesitant, balancing the government's defiant stance against the reality of continued sanctions and their impact on purchasing power.

The Trump-Putin Energy Reversal

In a development that has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, seven oil tankers carrying approximately 288,000 tonnes of Russian diesel are currently sailing toward the United States. This movement, tracked by environmental group Greenpeace, represents the first tangible phase of a contentious supply deal recently negotiated between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. The deal effectively reverses years of stringent energy sanctions on Russia, signaling a major shift in American foreign policy and global trade alliances. While the legality of these shipments is being debated in Washington, the physical movement of the vessels suggests a determination to reshape the global crude and fuel sector. This shift has profound implications for the Middle East. If the US begins to normalize energy trade with Russia, the leverage of other oil-producing nations, including Iran, could be significantly altered. For now, oil prices are expected to stabilize around the $100 level, as shipping disruptions in the Gulf continue to provide a floor for prices. However, the re-entry of Russian fuel into the American market could eventually lower global energy costs, which might reduce the inflationary pressure on the US Dollar—a currency that remains the primary benchmark for Iranian savers.

Market Fragility: Gold Retreats as Bitcoin Consolidates

While the currency market remains relatively stable, the precious metals sector in Tehran saw a notable correction today. Gold 18k per gram dropped from 26,432,429 to 26,143,866 Toman, a decline of 1.1%. Similarly, the Emami coin fell by 0.6% to settle at 266,500,000 Toman. This localized dip in gold prices occurs even as global gold remains near historic highs above $4,000 per ounce. The divergence suggests that domestic demand in Iran may be cooling slightly as investors pivot toward other assets or wait for clearer political signals from the ongoing US-Russia-Iran triangle. In the digital asset space, Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below the $82,000 resistance level, trading at approximately $80,820. The crypto market is bracing for a massive event on Friday, as nearly $11 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire. This expiry, combined with the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold rates despite some internal pressure for hikes, creates a volatile environment for BTC. For Iranian crypto enthusiasts, the stability of Tether (USDT) at 271,429 Toman remains the key gateway for preserving capital, even as the underlying volatility of Bitcoin tests their risk appetite in a "low-hire, low-fire" global economy.