Shell Profits Double to $10.8bn Amid Regional Conflict; Toman Edges Lower as Gold Retreats

War Risk Premium Drives Shell’s Record Profits

The global energy landscape has been dramatically reshaped by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with energy giant Shell reporting an adjusted profit of $10.8 billion for the July-September quarter. This figure represents a staggering 100% increase compared to the $5.4 billion recorded in the same period last year. The surge in profitability is primarily attributed to higher oil and gas prices and increased refining margins, which have been bolstered by market fears of supply disruptions and the heightened risk premium associated with the regional war involving Iran. While the company plans to return $5 billion to its shareholders, the news has sparked intense criticism from climate activists and economic analysts who argue that energy firms are disproportionately benefiting from geopolitical instability.

For the global economy, these results underscore a painful reality: while energy corporations reap record rewards, the cost of living for the average consumer continues to climb. The 'war profit' narrative is becoming a central theme in international politics, as governments struggle to balance energy security with the need to curb inflation. In the context of Iran, these high global prices are a double-edged sword. While they theoretically increase the value of regional energy exports, the accompanying sanctions and the high cost of shipping and insurance in a conflict zone often prevent these gains from trickling down to the domestic economy, instead manifesting as higher import costs for essential goods.

The Russia-Iran Gas Alliance and the GECF Summit

Geopolitical ties between Moscow and Tehran have reached a new symbolic peak during the 8th Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Summit in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin used the platform to explicitly praise the role of the late Leader of the Islamic Revolution in the founding of the forum, framing it as a vital institution for global energy stability. This gesture is more than mere rhetoric; it signals a deepening strategic alignment between two of the world’s largest gas reserve holders. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized the need for GECF member states to form a united front against unilateral sanctions, a sentiment that resonates strongly as both nations face unprecedented economic pressure from the West.

This burgeoning 'Gas OPEC' aims to exert greater control over global energy pricing and infrastructure, moving away from Western-dominated financial systems. By focusing on collective resistance to sanctions, Russia and Iran are attempting to create a parallel energy market that caters to the growing demands of the East and the Global South. For the Iranian reader, this development suggests that the government is doubling down on its 'Look to the East' policy, hoping that energy alliances with Russia can provide a buffer against the volatility of the US Dollar and European trade restrictions. However, the effectiveness of such a forum remains to be seen, as technical challenges and infrastructure limitations continue to hinder the full integration of these energy networks.

Tehran Market Analysis: Currency Pressure and Gold Correction

At 12:00 Tehran time on Thursday, October 29, 2026, the domestic markets reflect a complex interplay of regional tension and global economic signals. The US Dollar (sell) has moved from 270,700 to 271,400 Toman, marking a 0.3% increase over the last 24 hours. This steady climb indicates persistent demand for hard currency as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. Conversely, the price of 18-karat gold has seen a correction, dropping from 26,432,429 to 26,270,834 Toman per gram, a decrease of 0.6%. This divergence between the dollar and gold is notable; while the local currency remains under pressure, the slight dip in gold prices suggests a temporary cooling of the global gold rally, which recently saw the metal reach historic highs above $4,000 per ounce.

The broader market sentiment is also being shaped by domestic policy statements. Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei recently outlined key priorities focusing on economic resilience and national unity. These remarks are intended to steady the ship as Iran navigates the economic fallout of its conflict with the US and Israel. For investors, the message is clear: the state is prioritizing stability over rapid growth. Meanwhile, in the crypto space, Bitcoin continues to trade around the $79,939 mark, struggling to regain the $80,000 psychological barrier as hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve dampen risk appetite globally. The combination of high energy prices, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical maneuvering suggests a volatile winter ahead for Iranian households and businesses alike.